The closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be a “suicidal” move for Iran. US Vice President JD Vance is convinced of this, who spoke to Nbc News after the US raids on nuclear sites in the Islamic Republic. The Majlis, the Tehran Parliament, “has come to the conclusion that the Strait of Hormuz must be closed, but the final decision on the matter rests with the Supreme National Security Council,” said Revolutionary Guards General Esmail Kowsari, who sits on the Majlis National Security Committee, in statements reported by Iran’s Press TV.
The Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran is threatening to block amid escalating tensions with Israel, is a strategic route for transporting oil and LNG. A ‘maritime corridor’ between Iran and Oman, it connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. Most of the oil and LNG exported from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar and Iran itself passes through here.
“The entire (Iranian) economy passes through the Strait of Hormuz,” Vance said. Just 33 kilometers at its narrowest point, from Hormuz – according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration – an average of 20 million barrels of crude oil per day passed in 2024 and the transit was crucial for about a fifth of the global LNG trade, primarily from Qatar.
According to the International Energy Agency, the Strait of Hormuz is “the way out of the Gulf for about 25% of global oil supplies” and its “closure, even for a limited time, would have a major impact on the oil and gas market”. In the past, there have been cases of oil tanker seizures by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, the Pasdaran. Over the years, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have tried to find other routes to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, including the construction of pipelines.
“It’s a very complex situation. A premise is necessary: one thing is the request to close the Strait of Hormuz and another is to implement it, even from a military point of view. According to the current situation, Europe and the entire West are frightened by the possible consequences of this act. The fact that it was requested by the Iranian Parliament has more effect because this alone is enough to inflame the markets and have consequences that will weigh on consumers,” Francesco Sassi, a researcher in energy geopolitics at the University of Oslo, underlines to Adnkronos.
“The European and Asian energy markets will be the most affected – continues Sassi – We are heading towards a week of fire. These are European economies already burdened by public debt, by frayed growth. On energy we realize that not only the war between Russia and Ukraine weighs. Europe finds itself playing a game with its back against the wall. In the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf in general, there are the largest oil and gas producing countries in the world. Added to this is a situation of great imbalance on international markets and this creates even more concern, because Europe has based its strategy of diversification from Russian energy on alternative sources and alternative trading partners. If the situation in the Persian Gulf were to get out of control, a significant part of Europe’s alternative markets would be compromised. Next week we could already have strong repercussions on the markets. It is the political variability and instability, even before the economic one, that makes this juncture unstable and more dangerous”.
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