John Cornyn primary contest

By Joseph Morton and Gromer Jeffers Jr.

(The Dallas Morning News) — U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, and his allies spent the summer attacking primary challenger Ken Paxton as unfit for office in an effort to erode the state attorney general’s robust early support among more conservative Lone Star State voters.

They’ve also defended Cornyn’s credentials as a President Donald Trump fan in the face of criticism he’s been squishy in his commitment to the Make America Great Again movement.

As Labor Day arrives, recent polling indicates the effort is paying dividends in a contest that goes to the heart of where the Republican party is and where it could be heading.

National Democrats are watching closely for evidence they could flip the seat, which would be a significant boost in their efforts to win control of the Senate.

Party leaders worried Paxton could be hampered by personal baggage in a general election are sounding alarms that despite Cornyn’s progress, voters still view the attorney general as the more conservative candidate.

Cornyn’s critics say it’s unsurprising the senator would see a polling bump after the millions spent on his behalf and question how he will fare once Paxton’s camp truly opens up on him.

One Republican watching it all closely is U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, who has been spending on campaign ads far beyond his Houston-area district to raise his statewide profile as he considers waging his own U.S. Senate campaign.

Cornyn campaign senior adviser Matt Mackowiak said the senator is gaining ground on Paxton among Texas Republican primary voters as they learn about Cornyn’s record of voting 99% of the time with Trump and delivering results such as the billions included in the Big Beautiful Bill to reimburse states like Texas for border-related expenses.

“We have a plan to win this race and we are executing it,” Mackowiak said. “Meanwhile Ken Paxton is dealing with a new embarrassing scandal nearly every day, as recent polls show him losing to (Democrat) Colin Allred in a general election in a state Trump strongly won by 13% just eight months ago.”

An Aug. 26 memo prepared by the Senate Leadership Fund, a prominent Senate GOP super PAC, suggested donors rally behind Cornyn now because Paxton could put the Senate seat at risk for Republicans if he wins the nomination.

The memo highlighted how Cornyn was trailing Paxton in polls taken before the summer spending and cited several recent polls showing the senator in better shape.

One key data point: A Texas Southern University poll from August shows Cornyn within five percentage points of Paxton. That’s an improvement for Cornyn, who in a May TSU survey was down nine points to Paxton.

In a two-way primary race for Senate, Paxton was the choice of 44% of likely primary voters, while Cornyn had 39% and 17% were unsure. In a three-way battle, Paxton led with 35%, with Cornyn at 30%, Hunt with 22% and 13% unsure.

The May poll had Paxton leading a three-way race with 34%, followed by Cornyn with 27%, Hunt at 15% and 24% of likely GOP primary voters undecided. Paxton led Cornyn 43% to 34% in a two-man race in that poll, with 23% undecided.

The SLF memo said that progress is promising and disproves any assertions the race has already been decided.

“However, until Cornyn’s conservative image moves closer to Paxton’s, the contest will remain competitive,” the memo said.

From May to August, the Cornyn camp unleashed a barrage of attacks painting Paxton as unfit for office.

They highlighted allegations tied to his impeachment, an Associated Press story that he and his wife claimed multiple houses as primary residences to lock in lower mortgage interest rates and a host of other issues.

At the same time, they touted the senator’s relationship with Trump.

“He’s tethered himself to Trump,” said Michael Adams, co-author of the poll and founding director of the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at TSU. “If you look at the messaging and also his advertisement, he’s trying to paint this image or portray himself as being not necessarily a MAGA supporter, but clearly a supporter of President Trump.”

Rice University political scientist Mark Jones, who co-authored the poll with Adams, said Cornyn could have benefited from the July divorce filing from Paxton’s wife, GOP Sen. Angela Paxton.

“The negative attack ads that have been assisted by Angela Paxton’s very public filing for divorce based on biblical grounds,” Jones said. “It signaled that the Attorney General’s ethical shortcomings are worse than some Republican primary voters might have thought, at least when it relates to his marital situation.”

Jones said the trajectory of the race could change when Paxton starts spending campaign cash.

Paxton can highlight comments Cornyn made in May 2023 questioning Trump’s ability to win another general election and urging the party to consider a different nominee.

The following January, within minutes of The Associated Press calling the New Hampshire primary for Trump, Cornyn said it was time for Republicans to rally behind their nominee.

Paxton also can point to Cornyn’s record of reaching across the aisle to compromise on issues such as gun safety legislation. That approach got Cornyn booed at the 2022 state GOP convention in Houston.

“Once Paxton starts bringing up Cornyn’s past votes and past statements related to Trump, you could see some erosion in support for Cornyn among Republican primary voters,” Jones said.

Adams said the GOP Senate primary will test which faction of the Texas GOP controls primaries, and whether Cornyn can bring enough traditional Republicans to the process to offset any advantage Paxton may have with activists on the far right.

Paxton will likely be the most formidable opponent Cornyn has had, and Cornyn may be Paxton’s strongest opponent.

“It’s a different kind of primary and it speaks beyond this particular race,” Adams said. “It’s a look at where the Republican Party is headed and what that portends for the general and whether or not Democrats may have a chance.”

Pro-Cornyn groups have sought to leverage their financial advantage, spending millions over the summer on his behalf.

Cornyn’s principal campaign committee reported $5.9 million cash on hand at the end of the most recent reporting quarter that ended June 30. Paxton’s campaign had $2.5 million.

Those reports lag real-time data and both candidates could ramp up their fundraising efforts in September.

Super PACs aligned with each candidate have raised millions more, with Cornyn having an overall cash advantage.

Cornyn has highlighted endorsements that include former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, various Texas agriculture groups, the Border Patrol union and border county sheriffs.

Paxton’s endorsements include the National Association for Gun Rights PAC and Gun Owners of America.

Paxton has sharply criticized Cornyn for his work on the bipartisan gun safety measure Congress passed in the wake of the 2022 Uvalde school shooting in which 19 students and two teachers were killed.

“I’m running to take on the anti-gun nuts in Washington, just like I have as Attorney General, and put an end to the broken system of ‘compromise’ legislation that always ends in our 2nd Amendment rights being attacked,” Paxton said in a news release.

The Texas Southern poll found that 41% of likely GOP primary voters would be more likely to vote for a candidate backed by Trump, who has steered clear of backing a candidate in the race.

Both candidates have talked up their support for Trump.

When asked recently by a reporter about the race, Trump reiterated his intention to stay out of it — at least for now.

“Well, I’ll make up my mind,” Trump said, adding “they all want the endorsement.”

He cited the power of his support in Texas based on his double-digit margin of victory in the state for last year’s presidential election.

“They like me in Texas, so people are waiting for me,” Trump said. “I’d rather not comment on it right now. I like both guys. They’re both friends of mine, and they’re both good and very different.”

A wild card in the race could be Hunt, who has run ads paid for by his congressional campaign in Dallas and other markets as he tries to boost his profile.

Brandon Rottinghaus, political science professor at the University of Houston, said Hunt has stayed out of what is a messy fight between Cornyn and Paxton.

He added the clock is ticking, however, and Hunt will face challenges in building a statewide campaign in a short period of time.

The rationale for a Hunt candidacy is that Cornyn can’t win the primary and Paxton can’t win the general election. The Houston congressman would likely pitch himself as the perfect candidate to do both.

Rottinghaus said there’s an unusual number of Texas voters undecided in the race given how much they already know about Cornyn and Paxton.

That could reflect the frustration of Republicans who aren’t sold on Cornyn’s approach to politics but are worried Paxton is too toxic to defeat the Democratic nominee next November, Rottinghaus said.

“Hunt’s promise provides the opportunity for Republicans to choose somebody who is beyond the lesser of two evils,” Rottinghaus said. “Hunt provides a fresh face, a new approach and maybe an alternative to what people have come to see as just the same staid fight between incumbents.”