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The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its growth forecasts for China for this year and 2023 as strict Covid curbs and a crisis in the property sector fuel a slowdown in the world’s number two economy. online news
China’s gross domestic product is expected to expand 3.2 percent this year, the IMF said in its quarterly global forecast, down 0.1 percentage point from its previous forecast in July.
That would be the country’s weakest growth in around four decades, excluding the first year of the pandemic, according to data from the government and the World Bank.
The IMF said growth would pick up to 4.4 percent next year, though that would still be a 0.2 percentage point drop on its previous estimate.
Both figures are well below Beijing’s stated GDP growth target for this year of around 5.5 percent, a figure many analysts believe is now unattainable.
China last year recorded healthy expansion of 8.1 percent, albeit from a lower base owing to the impact of virus lockdowns in 2020.
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But the world’s most populous nation has stuck fast to a policy of extinguishing new outbreaks as they emerge, unlike many countries which have moved to reopen as the public health threat from the virus has receded.
Characterised by snap lockdowns, mass testing and lengthy quarantines, the zero-Covid strategy has “taken a toll on the economy, especially in the second quarter of 2022”, the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook report.
A creeping crisis in the “rapidly weakening” real estate market — which accounts for about a quarter of annual GDP — “will weigh heavily on global trade and activity”, added the Washington-based institution.
“A worsening of China’s property sector crisis could spill over to the domestic banking sector and weigh heavily on the country’s growth” with potentially global consequences, it warned.
The slowdown in China comes as the global economy is battered by surging interest rates aimed at fighting soaring prices that have been triggered by Russia’s war in Ukraine as well as global supply chain snarls.
Beijing has sought to mitigate low growth in recent months with a series of easing measures to provide support, slashing key interest rates and pumping cash into the banking system. But observers say the effects do little to mitigate the impact of the strict lockdowns.
China is due to release its third-quarter growth figures and a number of other economic indicators this month.
Growth slumped to just 0.4 percent in the three months through June, the country’s worst performance since the early days of the pandemic.
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Notes from APS Radio News
According to Statista, in the US, for example, the average mortality rate was about .07%, where the virus was concerned.
Statista is an award-winning service that compiles and analyzes various types of data for clients that include corporations and governments.
As well, it’s been reported that the recovery rate is about 99% for most age groups.
John Ioannidis, a professor of medicine at Stanford University, reported that among those over the age of 80, the recovery rate was still over 85%.
According to a number of virologists those who tested positive but who were asymptomatic, such persons were less likely to be contagious than those who had symptoms of the virus.
By October 2020, over 100,000 had been shuttered as a result of various juridictions having imposing restrictions and lockdowns.
